Since April 2023 war has been raging in Sudan that has claimed tens of thousands of lives with more than ten million, about a quarter of the population, displaced and facing disease and famine. Unfortunately civil war has been a feature of the country over several decades. (1) The current conflict is indicative of the turmoil in the last half decade starting in 2019 when after weeks of protests president Omar Hassan al-Bashir was overthrown after a quarter of a century in power. The different processes that followed, although at times with a civilian slant such as the Taqaddum, Sudanese Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces founded in October 2023. All were ultimately controlled by the military, namely the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF,) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemeti) respectively. (2)
Last year the country’s two leading military men who had staged a coup together reportedly “forged on a mutual disdain for the Sudanese people’s democratic ambitions”, began an armed battle with each other and their forces for control and resources. (3) Before the split that created South Sudan in 2011, Sudan was the largest geographical state in Afrika sharing borders with seven other African states making it a gateway to northern, eastern, and central regions of the continent and is rich with oil, natural gas and gold.. (4)
Not surprisingly, a country of strategic importance attracts external interest. Some sources cite the SAF’s al-Burhan as the “CIA’s henchman” while there are reports reports that United Arab Emirates (UAE) that has been accused of supplying arms to both sides. (5) However, there is more evidence that UAE support for the RSF “substantial”, along with supplies from the ubiquitous Russian mercenary force The Wagner Group both of whom are getting their palms crossed with Sudanese gold from RSF controlled mines in the Darfur region. (6)
For their part SAF have forged links with UAE’s Arab rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. So both the Saudi’s and UAE “see the conflict as an opportunity to expand their regional influence, but diverging interests in Sudan have compounded the competitive dynamic between the two Gulf powers.” (7)
These manoeuvres ostensibly bypassed the African Union since the collapse of the Transitional Sovereign Council it negotiated in 2019. However, it’s members Uganda, Central African Republic and Chad as UAE proxies are supporting the RSF. (8)
Hemeti’s diplomatic tour across various African capitals has given the RSF the upper hand in the war. (9) This should raise real concern given that the RSF roots are in the Janjaweed, the Sudanese Arab militia, known as the “devils on horseback,” that previously wreaked havoc against Afrikan rebels, especially in the Darfur region. (10)
For those like Taqaddum affiliated activist Mohammad Elsir RSF dominance is not good omen:
“Having to co-exist with the RSF but also the side that created the RSF (i.e. the SAF). The Islamists see themselves as God’s vice-regents on earth and they see this war as their last chance to come back”. (11)
Human rights groups have recorded summary executions, rape, and ethnically motivated killings perpetuated by the RSF and its allied Arab militias, targeting the Black African Masalit population although they have denied committing these crimes. (12)
It doesn’t appear that these atrocities unduly trouble the external influences. It is a situation lamented by Yasir Arman, Vice-Chairman of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement–North argues for the re-institution of the legacy Dr John Garang De Mabior, the charismatic leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement who sued for south Sudanese independence, achieved in 2011, six years after his death in a aircraft crash. Arman opines:
“Dr Garang was a true revolutionary and a great Pan-Africanist who left no doubt of his commitment to the unity of Sudan on a new basis… our main objective of a new, united secular Sudan, as Sudan is still neither united nor secular… I still believe, among many, that this vision can still reunite Sudan in a “Sudanese Union” between two independent countries, each of them managing its own affairs yet having a union between them, as the relations between the two countries can only be strategic. This union can also include many of our neighbouring countries in a wider regional arrangement.” (13)
Given the international scope of the conflict in Sudan, it’s solution must lie internally. John Garang provided a vision, it remains to be seen where this can come from as it seems unlikely under the domination of the SAF/RSF dynamic.
(1) AP news wire (10/06/24) The UN says more than 10 million people in Sudan have now fled their homes as war continues. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/south-sudan-ap-geneva-egypt-chad-b2560029.html; Douglas H. Johnson (2016) The Root Causes Of Sudan’s Civil Wars: Old Wars and New Wars. James Curry. p.209-241
(2) Abayomi Azikiwe (07/01/24) Sudan Talks Between Military Leaders Cannot Bring Genuine Peace. https://www.globalresearch.ca/sudan-talks-between-military-leaders-cannot-bring-genuine-peace/5845317
(3) Eliza Mackintosh and Jennifer Hansler (26/04/23) How the West enabled Sudan’s warring generals. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/26/africa/sudan-generals-west-democratic-transition-intl/index.html; Steven Sahiounie (06/05/24) Sudan’s Conflict and Resulting Starvation. https://www.globalresearch.ca/sudan-conflict-resulting-starvation/5856445
(4) Abayomi Azikiwe (20/04/23) Democratic Transition Further Delayed by Military Clashes in Sudan. https://www.globalresearch.ca/democratic-transition-further-delayed-military-clashes-sudan/5816530?utm_campaign=magnet&utm_source=article_page&utm_medium=related_articles
(5) Thomas C Mountain(18/04/23) Bombing Khartoum; CIA’s Latest Attempted Coup in Africa. https://countercurrents.org/2023/04/bombing-khartoum-cias-latest-attempted-coup-in-africa/; Oscar Rickett (21/02/24) How the UAE kept the Sudan war raging. https://africanarguments.org/2024/02/how-the-uae-kept-the-sudan-war-raging/; Military Africa (22/40/23) The UAE sold arms to both warring parties in Sudan. https://www.military.africa/2023/04/the-uae-sold-arms-to-both-warring-parties-in-sudan/
(6) Rickett. Op. cit.; Giorgio Cafiero (25/08/23) In Sudan, a Saudi Arabia-UAE rivalry intensifies. https://www.newarab.com/analysis/sudan-saudi-arabia-uae-rivalry-intensifies
(7) The New Arab (12/02/24) Why Sudan’s army is pivoting towards Iran. https://www.newarab.com/analysis/why-sudans-army-pivoting-towards-iran; Cafiero. Op. cit.
(8) The New Arab (15/11/23) Darfur massacres mark a grim turning point in Sudan’s war. https://www.newarab.com/analysis/darfur-massacres-mark-grim-turning-point-sudans-war
(9) Elfadil Ibrahim (24/01/24) Is a Rapid Support Forces victory in sight in Sudan’s brutal war? https://www.newarab.com/analysis/rsf-victory-sight-sudans-brutal-war
(10) Kweku Khem (2006) Darfur: Genocide In Action. The Whirlwind, Edition 3. p. 19
(11) Ibrahim. Op. cit.
(12): Rickett. Op. cit.
(13) Yasir Arman (04/08/18) Dr John Garang’s Vision: The Only Game in Town for the Two Sudans. https://paanluelwel.com/2018/08/04/dr-john-garangs-vision-the-only-game-in-town-for-the-two-sudans/
What’s behind the crisis in Sudan?
1) Why has warfare been such a feature of Sudan’s history?
2) Is SAF or RSF more capable of leading Sudan to peace?
3) How big an influence are the external factors?
4) Could John Garang’s vision be revived in Sudan?
Our Special Guests:
Bro. Ldr. Mbandaka: Resident guest who is Spiritual Leader of the Alkebu-Lan Revivalist Movement and an Afrikan-Centred Education Consultant. Bro. Ldr is a veteran activist of over 40 years standing, a featured columnist in The Whirlwind newspaper and author of Mosiah Daily Affirmations and Education: An African-Centred Approach To Excellence.
Bro. Awalgak Malwal: is a South Sudanese activist and founder of the education initiative Sudan In Action.
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